Libya - 2011 pt 3: INEVITABLE DOWNFALL

NATO has gotten involved now, including contingents from Europe and the USA. A question you may ask is “why is NATO concerned with a civil war in Libya?”
I will make this clear in my next post, along with the goals and motivations of the Libyan Rebellion.

Good Morning, Ladies and Gentlemen. This morning sees a development in northern Africa that has been a long time coming, but inevitable just the same.
A quick recap:
Part 1: "WHAT IS LIBYA?" explained and clarified the geographic, historical, and cultural background of Libya, in order to give us a firm-enough grounding in the subject to speak about it. I wish, one day, to be able to research and present the same subject matter properly... one day...
Part 2: "DICTATORIAL DISASTER" explained, as the title suggests, the rise and beginning of the Fall of the Dictator of modern Libya - Colonel Muammar Gadaffi. I left you at the end of this post with the phrase: "And that brings us to the present day, where the civil war in Libya still rages." I also promised you that I will explain why NATO has gotten itself involved in what is essentially an internal civil war in Libya.
And now I will deliver on my promise.


So, it is a civil war. The Dictator Gadaffi has grown crazier and crazier over his 41 year rule of the country, and if you want details, refer to the previous "Libya - 2011" posts.
Korea was a civil war back in the 195os, and still remains in a technical state of war.
Vietnam was also a civil war in the 1960s and 1970s.
The Gulf War of 1991 was not a civil war, it was a battle between Iraq and Kuwait, with Iraqi intentions to move it on to Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East Arab world, if they did not comply with threats and demands from Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
Without any argument, the USA, along with its allies, has insinuated itself into each of these notable (if not pivotal) wars of the 20th Century. The reasons are far too many and too complex to discuss here, and will take away from the current topic. Please browse through my posts, I'm sure I've written about at least one of them in the last two years. If not, tell me, and I'll post a Uni essay that I wrote on the matter you want.

Prior to September 11, 2001 (the tenth anniversary of which is less than one month away today), the USA found itself temporarily without any major threats or military targets. If you can even remember that time, we were at peace, and only small conflicts were waging in eastern Europe and other regular hotspots.
But then, of course, the infamous "War On Terror" began, and to open it for us all we went to war in Afghanistan. The goal was to hunt down the alleged perpetrators of 9/11. 9 years later, Osama bin Laden was captured and killed by US forces. The fact that it didn't even occur in Afghanistan has ruffled more than a few feathers - it happened in neighbouring Pakistan, a supposed ally of the USA. THAT, too, is a subject for discussion at another time. (Oh, so much to discuss, and so little time and resources to furnish myself with the details!!!! - my constant lament!!!!)

Afghanistan spelled, as it did for the Soviet Union, a turning point for the worse for the USA. After ten long, fruitless years of fighting, with US and allied soldiers on the ground and dug in, in the firing line and dying daily, the war in Afghanistan has been a shamozzle.
The coninciding War in Iraq ("Gulf War II") took just as bad and heavy a toll on the USA, its prestige, and its credence as any kind of protector of justice.

Where it hurts the most for the USA today is that, as the largest and most powerful economy in the world, it is bringing down the rest of the global system as it falters and crashes.

Needless to say, with the details I've just given you, the USA had no intention of getting involved in yet ANOTHER war, the Libyan Civil War of 2011.

Europe ("once great, now bait") sits on Libya's doorstep, and, try as it might, it could not ignore goings-on in Libya any longer at the start of this year (2011AD). The preceding years saw great fluctuations in relationship temperatures between Libya and Europe. It turned out that the fluctuations were the result of Gadaffi's insanity becoming more apparent. Oh well, live and learn.

But the world could not stand back and do nothing.
As selfish as our economic preoccupations make us seem, there is still generally a tipping point when the outside world can be aware of a conflict that contains atrocities. If we are AWARE, there will always be a voice calling to stop it.
Sadly, just as our economic preoccupations suggest, Europe only galvanised itself into action once it began to realise the economic fallout potential of a prolonged and unresolved war in Libya.
People often take notice of things when MONEY is involved. They take even greater notice when it is THEIR money.

I don't wish to go through the list of potentialities right now, but suffice it to say that another Afghanistan just across the Mediterranean from Europe would NOT be conducive to good trade and travel.

Hence, NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, got involved.
Still red and smarting from the lessons of Afghanistan, neither the USA nor Europe were willing to put troops on the ground in Libya. The last thing anybody in the Western world needs is another "War in ....." in the media headlines.
To the West's delight, that didn't seem totally necessary. Whereas the people of Iraq were too demoralised after the first Gulf War to act in the second, and whereas the people of Afghanistan have not known order or government for so long that they could not organise themselves effectively at all, the people of Libya were different.
Please see Part 2 for more details: Gadaffi's crucial mistakes during his dictatorship have centered on his eagerness to engage with the rest of the world in some way. The allowance of communcations, new technologies, education - all this led directly to the awakening that the Libyans felt earlier this year and said "It doesn't HAVE TO be this way!", and also allowed them to organise themselves into effective fighting forces - effective enough to rival Gadaffi's standing military structure.
There is still no one man named as the head of this Rebellion, and I hope that there never really is - but they have somehow managed to organise themselves on the ground.
We may or may not learn ten years from now that CIA advisers were helping the Rebels... it's always possible. Then again, we never hear about the CIA's accomplishments (if any), just its failures.
Capable as the Rebels have been, they did not command the same military hardware that Gadaffi had. Tanks, fighters, bombers - all the big toys that we like to use in computer games. Especially AIR POWER is important in these sorts of scuffles. Hitler himself realised the importance of air superiority, and with it he took Libya back in the 1940s, and the rest of the Mediterranean. he never achieved it over Britain, and so Operation Sea Lion was a bust. And the Allies of WWII gained air superiorty over both Japan and Germany in WWII, and so won the war.
Gadaffi held air superiorty for ever so long. But if there is one thing that NATO is capable of, with its US aircraft carriers and fighter pilot veterans from many previous engagements, and the lessons of WWII and every other damn war, it is the establishment of firm air superiority.
And Libya happens to be perched on the northern coast of the Sahara. All NATO really needed to do was park a few aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean, with some support craft, and they could launch unchallenged airstrikes on Gadaffi's forces, drop supplies to the Rebels.
And that is exactly what NATO is doing.
Co-ordination with Rebels on the ground has seen NATO pulverise Gadaffi's tanks and planes while they are still on the ground. The Rebels have been able to move into areas that were previously totally inaccessible. This general strategy has continued for the last 4 months or so, and today we see it is working.
The length of time it has taken has given the press a few scraps with which to build animosity against the campaign, but the story could never trump stories like celebrity babies, royal weddings, and , oh yeah, the global economic meltdown.

Notice that somewhere near the start of this post I seemlessly transition from past tense to present tense. Grammar-barons around the world will tell you that this is incorrect, but I have done so to reflect the primacy of the NOW-ness of this matter. It is literally happening right now!
TODAY:
A news report I have just seen has told us that the Anti-Gadaffi Rebel forces have actually moved into the capitol of Tripoli, and are flooding Green Square, a symbolic heart of the city.
To make the picture clear, this would be like a force moving into George Street in Sydney, Times Square in New York, Westminster in London, or through the Arc de Triomphe and around the Eiffel Tower in Paris (which many have done in the past!).

Through air support by NATO, and endless tenacity by the Rebels, the news is telling us that Gadaffi's sons are arrested or dead, his wife and daughter have fled to Tunisia, and Gadaffi himself is missing in action.
All of Gadaffi's cohort are called to face charges at the International Criminal Court in The Hague (South Holland).
There are even reports that the Presidential Guard, who were supposed to do Gadaffi's dirty work for him as the Rebels approached his palaces, are turning around to join the advancing Rebels.

I think it is safe to say at this point that Gadaffi does not have a snowball's chance in hell of regaining his power any time soon.
If he is hanged for his crimes, or even just for being a dickhead, he will never rise again.
Personally, I think his mental state is beyond the point of return, and he is just too crazy to rule ever again, let alone claw it all back.

I could write a Part 4 for this series on Libya - 2011, but it would have be titled "LIBYA'S FUTURE?", and as the title suggests, I can't predict that.

There are, however, some certain pathways, down which Libya, as a country, is most likely to travel.

The Libyans need to rebuild their shattered country. Economics, evil as it is, is the only way to do that. We happen to be in the middle of an on-again-off-again Recession right now, so the difficulties will soon mount against the fledgeling Libyan Republic.
Libya HAS got OIL, however, and the rest of the world, the West and China, still has an insatiable appetite for the stuff. If sold, and the profits handled with due diligence, Libya could rebound from the ashes with remarkable speed and dexterity. This cannot be assured however, because we have seen, SOOOO MANY TIMES, the leaders of oil-rich countries squander such resources and leave their country mired in corruption. Gadaffi himself was guilty of this.
I am sure that Europe will be more than happy to help the re-shaping of Libya, but can the leaders of the new state be altruistic for long enough not to steal their peoples' future again?

And if a particular leader of this 2011 Rebellion surfaces, and Name is proclaimed, he or she will very likely become the new President. The Libyans will need to decide on a foundation and form for their new government - Republic, Constitutional Monarchy, something democratic hopefully. But any one personality that is strong enough, charismatic enough, could plunge the nation back into Dictatorship again.

I want to say that there are high hopes for the future of Libya, and the world at large, but I cannot say it honestly. I could offer you platitudes, but they bore me.
I know that most of what I say goes in one ear of my good listeners, and straight out the other. It is the same human concept that is now Libya's greatest potential foe - the need to learn, and relearn again and again and again, its lessons for itself.
There are enough racial divides in Libya to guarantee that the first crack in the new system will be fatal.
Centuries of mistreatment and/or ignorance by Europe has instilled fear and mistrust in the collective Libyan psyche that will never, ever truly be washed away.

Ultimately, Libya's future is in its own hands. Whether the USA, or Europe, set up programs and start funneling endless amounts of cash into it or not, the key decisions will still be held by the Libyan people living out their lives there.

I can never expect that my honesty on a matter like this will ever be taken seriously. I have never, myself, been taken seriously when I have attempted to offer honesty to people who really need a dose of it. I find it hard to swallow myself sometimes, but I have, of late, managed to take advice when it has been given to me. My own Desert Exile has not been a waste by any means.
The people of Libya have been in a spiritual and political Exile in the Sahara. Will they come out of it enlightened, even the tiniest bit?
Oh well, here are your platitudes, and I tell them to you only because they will be what you remember from this post if you have read this far:
(I say them with somewhat of a hint of irony. See if you can spot it)

"Libya's future is bright!"
"Libya, as a people, will never forget the trials and suffering under Gadaffi, and never again allow themselves to be ruled by a crazy dictator."
"The USA and Europe will do all they can, in the spirit of good will, to re-establish Libya as a viable nation-state, bring it into the UN, and take it seriously - not because of its resources and strategic value, but because the people have earned it, and because it is just the right thing to do!"


Ladies and Gentlemen, one thing IS perfectly clear, and I say this with NO irony whatsoever:
CHINA is going to do FUCK ALL about Libya. Just as it has done everywhere else in the world where other states have gotten involved, for better or for worse. China is ruled be a sniveling lot of hypocrites and fat-cats, sitting in their ivory towers in Beijing and Shanghai, still calling themselves socialist while reaping in enormous profits off the backs of its countless peasants and workers. China has refused, for no good reason at all, to engage with the rest of the world, except for where selfish profit could be made. In many ways like this, China has been far worse than the USA or Europe.
I welcome any kind of debate about China, as I have just inspired myself to write something about the modern Dragon stay tuned for that one soon.

As for Libya, let's watch, let's scrutinise, and then let's have a drinking game or something, where we all take a shot each time another dicatator rises and then falls at the hands of his pissed off denizens.

From The Tominator.