The Second Korean War

Recent news in the real world has yielded an issue that I simply MUST make my comments on.
Maybe you can guess from the title of this post;
I am talking about the recent military action taken by North Korea against South Korea.

Of late, my main source of news is the Australian media. With internet and similar technology, we are no longer a day or two behind the rest of the world. However, despite this country being the birthplace of Rupert Murdoch, we have no endemic, worthy investigative media. By this, I mean to say that we get all our news from overseas sources, like Reuters, CNN, Fox (god help us all).
So it's filtered, it's biased, but in this case, it's second-hand.

What I know is this:

North Korea fired some short-range missiles and hit an island that sits in the contentious border zone. The island, the name of which is too long and difficult to pronounce that I will ask you to look it up, is a particular doozy in terms of territory. The island is inhabited by Koreans who consider themselves denizens of the South, and the UN (at the end of WWII) agreed that the island is inside the South's territory. The North, however, never ones to buck their tradition of disagreeing with everything the UN (and USA) say, have declared that the sea surrounding the island is Northern territory. So, to recap this paragraph: the Island is globally recognised as South territory, and occupied by South people, but the North recognises the water the Island is in to be North territory, against UN confirmation.

What are we to do?

I would hope that I have made any reader of this blog aware that the Korean War (started in 1950 by the North) has NOT actually ended yet. Whereas most wars officially end with a peace treaty being signed, there is NO peace treaty for the 1950-53 war in Korea. The North and the South did not make up, and are not merely noisy neighbours to one another.
The Korean situation is one like no other, and is, quite frankly, utterly unnecessary in this modern world, a relic of the Cold War that must be erased.

If I were to tell you the long and interesting story of the Korea War (1950-53), you would go way from me thinking this: "What a fucking waste of time, energy, resources and lives; although Japan did well out of it..."
Yes, after three long, brutal years fighting up and down that peninsula, it ended in a stalemate, with the Ceasefire (not Peace Treaty) drawing the lines exactly where they had been drawn before the war began - ie at the 38th parallel.

Now, we exist in a world where there are two Koreas. One is bat-shit insane, and the other is questionable. Both have been moulded in culture and identity by the existence and hatred of the other. Both harbour unsecret desires to annex, of perhaps destroy, the other.
But the juiciness of this particular issue does not end there! Oh no!

Think about where Korea is. Think about any news you saw the last few years, since the 2006 'nuclear' test conducted by the North. Have you heard the phrase "North Korea won't return to the six-party talks'?
Six-party talks.
Who could the six parties, the six interested stakeholders be in the Korean situation?

Well, obviously two of them are North Korea and South Korea.
Expanding outwards geographically, three more candidates are easily spotted, as the only three countries that exist around the peninsula: China, Japan, and Russia.
That leaves one seat left.
Need it be said, that seat belongs to the USA!
North, South, China, Japan, Russia, USA. Six parties.

Let it be know and clear, the war in 1950 was started by the NORTH. Kim Il Song was his name, the leader who led the North.
Why did he do it??
Stay with me: I am going to give you the condensed version. Ask me for details later. (I strongly urge you to look at a MAP as you read this)

Pre-WWII: Japanese Empire includes all of Korea (and eastern China, Taiwan, many islands)

After Hiroshima nuke, before Nagasaki nuke: Russia declares war on Japan.

End of WWII: USA takes the home-islands of Japan, and the rest of the Empire is decided on. Because Russia got in just in time, Stalin lays claim to half of Korea, and half of Japan (namely Hokkaido). General MacArthur, US Occupation leader, refuses Hokkaido, but must allow halfo of Korea. HENCE, North goes to USSR administration, South goes to US administration (same spirit of the Germany divide at the end of WWII) NEITHER superpower is happy with the arrangement, both of course wishing to hold the entirety of Korea.

USSR and USA spread their own special ways of doing things in their own halves of Korea. Stalin helps install Kim Il-Song, complete with personality and half a brain. Kim runs with what he has, and with Stalin's blessing builds up a cult around himself.
President Truman installs a government that aspires, somehow, to democracy, but leaves us with someone whose name I never actually learnt, and that's after doing at least two university papers on the subject (so the leader of the South was unimportant).

Next important thing to note: USA Congress, President Truman, and General MacArthur all agree that Japan requires the most attention. Their motives are clear: just as a dependant Western Europe could provide new markets for capitalism once rebuilt, so too could the industrial potential of Japan (Japan did just wage a war with amazing effort. This cannot go ignored). Rather than punish Japan, the USA sought to rebuild it, and placed the bulk of post-war troops in the Japanese territories. South Korea was left marginally defended.

Kim Il Song understood the lax situation in the South, and took his advantage. On June 25 of 1950, he attacked from the North. Southern forces and US support were caught with pants down, and routed all the way back to Pusan.
The USA had to retaliate, and Truman seized the opportunity to show how effective the new UN could be. Miraculously, Russia was not present for the meeting in New York when the UN decided to sanction action against the North's aggression.
MacArthur came in, undid the Northern army's work, and got all the way back to China.

MacArthur had an itch he needed to scratch:
In the five years since Japan was defeated, Mao Zedong had managed to unify China (until this point a broken, divided mass of aimless wandering and civil war). The bad news was that Mao called himself a Communist, and came to power through no help from the USA. In fact, he was good friends with Stalin, and hated the USA intrinsically.
MacArthur's itch: having pushed the communist North all the way back to the Chinese border, MacArthur wanted to use nukes on the Chinese army that had volunteered to bolster the North Korean efforts. TO be clear, this means the USA goes to nuclear war with China, and Russia as an ally of China.
As Truman rightly thought: not good. Truman was already dealing with the idea that he'd personally allowed Hiroshima and Nagasaki to happen. Over his dead body would he allow MacArthur to nuke Chinese civilians for the hope of getting military targets.
MacArthur and Truman had a tiff, and Truman pulled rank and fired MacArthur's arse in 1951.

This really is an interesting story, but what does it mean for Korea now?

Well: MacArthur's replacement was a man whose name escapes me, for reasons I will now make obvious: the replacement General was not as good as MacArthur. Plain and simple. the frontline of the Korean War fluctuated twice more, once south, once north, and by 1953 both sides were seeking diplomatic ends to the conflict.

In peace negotiations, no solid agreements could be made. In fact, the 1953 talks were so unsuccessful and lacklustre that all they really succeeded in doing was to call the 38th parallel the official borderline, and declare a de-militarised zone (DMZ) on either side of the line.
This seems like an OK idea, until you figure that a map is just a representation, and a line on a map does not take into account the villages, buildings, and families that had been severed by that 38th parallel. Really, nothing could be brought to a close in 1953, and it's safe to say that the only reason the 38th parallel was agreed on was because the idea already existed. It's a twisted form of incumbency.... the worst reason to do anything if you ask me.

To this day, on 25 November 2010, the 38th parallel still exists.
President George Bush dropped the ball on everything, including nuclear development of the North. However, it isn't totally implausible to think that China just gave nuke technology to North Korea (the same way they gave it to Pakistan in 1998).

So now, today, we have the NORTH: still batshit-crazy, led by the 'divine' son of Kim Il Song, Kim Jong Il, in possession of Nuclear weapons, closed off and pariah, stubborn and unpredictable.
The SOUTH: actually made the jump from Developing to OECD nation (Developed, though their methods are questionable in terms of longevity), close military alliance with the USA, their own version of Democratic, non-nuclear, but more than capable of fast development of weapons (or could just ask the USA).

NEITHER the North nor the South should EVER be said to be "good" or "evil". These are words only fit for fantasy novels and the Bible, not for the real world.

From my perspective here in Australia, and for a year or so living in Japan, I can say that the North really does seem to be belligerent. But who can blame them?
They backed the wrong horse in the Cold War. China is their only ally, and treats them like the cousin at the family Christmas party that they wish hadn't come. They have no profitability in ANYTHING, their leader is certifiably crazy, US dollar counterfeiting is the main industry, and there is no contact with the outside world.

North Korea has therefore become the most dangerous thing in human sociology. From the outside, what we know urges us to say that the entire country is inhabited by brainwashed sociopaths, who live in starvation and fourth-world conditions and still thank their Dear Leader for it all.

If the North were to start another war, things would go very differently. Like I said, Kim Il Song had a golden opportunity when the USA was busy focusing on Japan in 1950. There was no strong military presence in the South, and his attack was one of opportunity more than anything else.
NOW: The South is ready, and has been ready for generations. The general population (and I speak from personal experience here) falls into three main categories: culturally staunch, and unresponsive to the idea that other parts of the world can be different; liberal and capable of wanting to get out of it; or somehow missed all the news and propaganda, and cares more about their phones and hanmail. I'm yet to meet a Korean who doesn't fall into one of these categories.
Sadly for the young men, every single young man (unless he can escape) must serve two compulsory years in the national service. This means that at any moment the entire male population of South Korea is capable of arming himself, and reporting for duty. Surveillance and weapons technology has been boosted by the US alliance. All of this is because the South does not want to be caught off-guard again.

So why would the North fire those missiles the other day? This is the question I came to answer.

The Answer: Kim Jong Il, the batshit-insane leader of the North, is dying of about six different ailments and cancers. he had three legitimate sons (and god knows how many illegitimate). One is a poofter, and openly so. One was caught trying to get into Tokyo Disneyland on a fake passport a few years ago. The youngest is a giant question-mark for the West. So, when it comes time to decide whom to leave the nuclear weapons and cult-demigod leadership to, Kim's choice has already been made for him.
The unknown son, his name is Kim Jong-Un. remarkably unimaginative, I am sure his name is some sort of musty old Korean convention that pays tribute to the wonderousness of his father.
All we know about Jong-Un is that he went to a school in Switzewrland for a few months, and loves basketball. This has led a friend and I to imagine that when he takes the reins from daddy, he will start to offer governmental positions and honourary military posts to the likes of Michael Jordan and Shaq, in the hopes of getting his boyhood heroes to show-up for his 26th birthday party and eat Kimchi with chopsticks made from farm-workers' bones.

This person, Jong-Un, is too easy to make fun of. And that is what you get after decades of fucking crazy shit such as what happens in North Korea. I had a history teacher once suggest that the North was misunderstood. I think that has some merit, though very little. They are misunderstood, yes, but they do a damn good job of both playing close to the chest AND throwing curveballs. I hope that mix-up of analogies makes my point clear.

The missile attacks the other day are explained thusly:
Jong-Il will die soon. He hogged the spotlight inside and outside of Korea for decades, and didn't choose his heir until only last year! The North Korean media goons are in overdrive, fabricating the backstory for Jong Un, just like they did for daddy so many years ago ("born on a mountain-top, surrounded by angels, >and other fantastical ego-masturbation garbage inserted here<")

The missile strikes were undoubtedly for the benefit of those INSIDE North Korea, not outside. the target was marginal, questionable, and only killed a few people. Personally, it is unacceptable, and although the UN won't back up its condemnation of it with anything of substance, I wish it would! But from the North's view, it was a use of weapons (check!), on the decision of the new leader (check!) that hurt the South (check!) and got some attention abroad (check!). All the boxes are checked in the North Korean media's handbook for making a new leader known. Even more proof for me is the fact that for several months North Korea featured nowhere in global media.

So the conclusion: the attacks in the last week are negligible. They SHOULD lead to the UN finally doing something about North Korea, but they won't. Russia has other things to worry about (like rebuilding the USSR under Vladimir "this time it's permanent" Putin).
The USA could not possibly launch any kind of conventional military intervention - I hope you;ve been reading the news at any point in the last two years to know WHY I just said that. The USA could use their stockpiled nukes, but probably not. Japan can't do anything, having cut off its military balls when it tried to attack the USA 60 years ago, and with the birthrate and all the other cultural adaptive problems, there won't BE a Japan to do anything soon enough.

China is the only party that might be able to do anything about North Korea. I've outlined the relationship. China is too economically tied-down with the USA, and too geared towards profit-making to engage in a costly war for or with the North. If anything, they will send strongly worded messages to whichever Kim is in power, and hope for the best.

In short, no-one will do anything. The missile attacks on the South Korean island are an isolated incident. The North will continue to shriek like a spoilt child every few months, and the South will continue to burn through many billions of Won to counter the possibility of the North attacking again. This will continue ad infinitum into the future, until someone makes an active choice to intervene. Even then, economic circumstances will dictate just how far one can move.

So, there will be no second Korean War. Not now, anyway. And if I'm wrong, then it will become nuclear quickly, and there will be no-one around to tell me I was wrong.

I hope that lets you sleep easier. Not the holocaust bit, the rest of it, about no war happening.

Good Night.

From The Tominator.